Lindens Flood Land Market
by Pixeleen Mistral on 10/02/07 at 12:03 am
40 sims last week were not enough – 80 more sims on the way?
Filling in the gaps
by Pixeleen Mistral, National Affairs desk
Just over a week ago, the Lindens created what must have felt like a seriously spiritual experience for some land buyers when the game gods suddenly dumped 40 mainland sims on auction. It remains unclear if this is the sort of spiritual experience in Second Life that Catherine Linden suggested that the mainstream media was interested in – but if it was expect there to be plenty more stories.
Last week’s 40 sims deluge appears to have been just the warm up act, as our inspection of the world map tonight reveals over 30 more new “Unnamed” sims being prepped for sale.
But 30 sims is only the beginning – reliable sources report that senior Linden staffers are floating the idea that 80 sims may be put up for auction shortly. If our sources are to be believed, the Lindens are serious about driving the price of land down, but are being careful not to “break the market” – if that is possible.
What is particularly interesting is how manipulative the Lindens appear to be – sources tell us that they same “80 sims are on the way” message is being shared with a number of land barons. Could this mean the Lab has decided that the island market is glutted and it is now time to flood the mainland – and talk land prices down?
Close observers of the Second Life economy will recall that some 70% of the Linden Lab revenue currently comes from virtual land “sales” and “tier” payments. With the specter of other metaverse service providers on the horizon, the Lab may have decided that it is time to get the cash while the getting is good.
However, as these sorts of wild land-scarcity-to-land-glut swings become the norm, inside information would appear to be a prerequisite for success for land speculators and the possibility of smaller, less well connected land barons getting badly bruised becomes more real.
While writing this, I witnessed another new sim come online (Glenmore), and based on the size of the land gap that is being filled in this evening, it is entirely possible that up to 80 new sims may be online by morning – there are already around 35 as we go to press.
Nacon
Feb 10th, 2007
What the hell are you expecting? No growth?
Geez! It’s like, you really want SL to stop and rot. You’re just being paranoid over nothing.
“being careful not to “break the market” – if that is possible”
…like hell that would happen. It’s mainland, not islands.
People want islands more than mainland, so they can fuck their lover/couple more peacefully.
People tend to use mainland for business and clubs, rarely any homes.
All of the sudden, you’re worrying about LL slapping down about 40 sims while there’s more than 200 sims that people brought their own to rent it out EVERY MONTH.
Sit down, psycho.
I like seeing the mainland getting bigger, so I can sail my boat and travel with my car more often.
Yeah yeah yeah… sim crossing, so what, just slow down. geez
Clarrice Cinquetti
Feb 10th, 2007
I tend to agree with Nacon.
The in game map is very deceiving as well.
Yesterday was the first time I ever viewed the website interactive map (I don’t get the interactive part at all, no Sim or Island names were there)I was astounded at all the Islands that are out there.
When we started we bought first land and slowly bought land around us as it came up for sale by residents. That is unheard of these days. Realtors buy up the land so fast that the new user who is just getting their feet wet can’t afford to buy the plots around them, or just not familiar enough with SL to want to throw money around till they are sure they want to stick around.
I like seeing the mainland added, and they need to add more. There is something about buying your land slowly that makes it more dear to you. The experience of Secondlife is more rewarding on the mainland. Neighbors come and go, people can just wander across your build and become new friends. It is fun driving along the roads and running across wonderful builds, some quite imaginative and I am sure fantastic in the eyes of the builder. Kinda like looking at a wall of art projects in a school.
The Islands always reminded me too much of Active Worlds.
And a quick question for anyone who might know, is there somewhere that lists all the Sim and Island names? Or even the quantity?
RZ
Feb 10th, 2007
When land prices were going sky-high back in the land rush of summer 2004, Linden Lab did the same thing — flooded the market and drove the prices down.
Their reasons for doing that?
“We wanted to break the backs of the land barons”
That is a direct quote from one of LL’s top management.
What about Kapor's article? Devaluing land and chaning the model?
Feb 10th, 2007
any comments on that?
http://secondlife.reuters.com/stories/2007/01/26/interview-with-linden-lab-chairman-mitch-kapor-in-davos/
oops wrong url... here you go
Feb 10th, 2007
http://secondthoughts.typepad.com/second_thoughts/virtual_business_virtual_estate_economy_land/index.html
He makes it abundantly clear in this interview that there will most definitely be a shift in the business model for LL, from earning money off real estate (servers) — something that makes up 70 percent of their revenue now, and a turn to a “diversification of the business model, over years, not months.” “It is mostly land or hosting now,” Kapor explained to Adam, adding that there was some revenue from the currency exchange and tiny revenue from classifieds. While the ad business for the Metaverse will be huge, getting there will take time, and these software engineers in San Francisco are unlikey to take on the administrative overhead of that work. WHAT their services will be isn’t clear possibly even to them. But THAT they will change is absolutely not in doubt.
Nacon
Feb 10th, 2007
yeeeaah…. that was a long time ago… but now they really need to add more to keep up with people buying islands.
(duh?)
Prokofy Neva
Feb 10th, 2007
RZ, I’m not sure there really is such a quote. That is, I know they *think* that and even *say* it privately. But I don’t know if there is an actual public quote to that effect.
Um, three weeks ago isn’t a “long time ago” Nacon.
Yes, the Lindens need to add land. That’s for sure. To keep up with growth. But they don’t need to add it all in one day to completely crash the land market. They do that on purpose, in fact, to indeed break the backs of the land barons.
From their perspective, you would think that selling islands at a fixed rate of $1695, and selling mainland on the auction for bids of $3500 or $4000, instead of two sims for $1000 or $1200, is in their interest. If they land-glut, they sell two sims for the price they could get for one sim. Short-term, it’s madness. Only if you look at the tier they extract out of two sims versus one sim does it make some sense.
But how long are they going? Nobody knows. They don’t say. Three months or there years? They will end their land-based business model and have people host their own using the same software.
There’s a delicate balance to be kept between having enough fresh, reasonably-priced land available for new people, and having slightly older people be able to sell land for at least what they bought it for, and having a class of land barons, which are necessary, and not evil. And the Lindens can’t keep this balance, in part because their own interests — selling more islands and less mainland to get more revenue — are at cross purposes with the world’s interests, which is at one end of the spectrum new people needing cheap land, and at the other spectrum, land barons being able to have expensive waterfront and make money and also appeal to a higher-quality market.
In fact, though everbody screamed, I noticed lots of $8000-9000 512s being sold and people living on them without any fussing. Weedy Herbst may screech that $30 US is too much to pay for a 512 because she’s coming from the era of the subsidized. $30 for most people means they just don’t eat in their favourite neighbourhood Italian restaurant for one night that month, and stay at home and play Second Life.
Clarrice, there is no list anymore, there used to be. Sometimes people like Max Case make lists but they may not be able to keep up.
There are now more islands than mainland sims.
All the Lindens would have to do to change this is one simple thing: zone at the wholesale purchase level.
They would simply say that clubs, stores, malls, casinos cannot go on waterfront sims. Full stop. That would make them residential only, and would keep their value from being ruined and from people liquidating or getting stuck.
Clubs, malles, stores etc could be put at roadside only.
How could this possibly be enforced?
Easy. Label them as the zone they are: residential, business, entertainment. Waterfront, roadside, heartland.
Turn on the covenant thingie on the land menu and put one word “Zoned for residential. Voluntary compliance of residents urged”.
Then, turn it loose. Social pressure and the owner’s usage or resale will then affect how it turns out. You don’t need to police it; peer pressure will do some of the job. It will not be perfect, but it will be better than what we have now which is club thiefs.
RZ
Feb 10th, 2007
“RZ, I’m not sure there really is such a quote. That is, I know they *think* that and even *say* it privately. But I don’t know if there is an actual public quote to that effect.”
This was said in a face-to-face conversation. There were about ten people there to hear it. As it was said in an informal setting, there is no written record of it.
Nacon
Feb 11th, 2007
RZ said “When land prices were going sky-high back in the land rush of summer 2004, Linden Lab did the same thing”
what I said “that was a long time ago…”
Prok said “Um, three weeks ago isn’t a “long time ago” Nacon.”
Prok… how the fuck are you doing your taxes now? 2004 IS NOT 3 WEEKS AGO!
God damn bitch.
Benson Willis
Feb 12th, 2007
Personally, I’d rather see the Lindens find a way to stabalize SL so others could at least get online to buy this ‘spectacular land rush’ they’re opening.
I won’t deny though that land prices are outrageously insane on mainlands.