The Alphaville Herald

15 Responses to “Quarter 4 Results – Lowest QPC on Record”

1. 

   Professor C
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   You know if SL is failing as bad as this is trying to tell us. Please explain to me why there were so many people on the grid that I could not log in for two hours last week?

   Your big showing is growth in percentages which if you had any brain you would know that if you keep adding the same number to any number the percentage the base number increases by will always go down. Even if the number you are adding goes up.

   As an example and I know you love my math. If you have 100,000 people and add another 50,000 to that you have a 50% increase and end up with 150,000 people. Now you add 60,000 people to THAT number (An increase in number) but you only get a 40% increase overall to 210,000 people.

   Another thing you are not taking into account is the trading value of the Linden Dollar has gone up 6 points in a very short time showing that it is being traded HEAVILY and thus is getting to be worth more and more.

   The SL economy is actually on the rise not on the decline.

   You are also not taking into consideration the policy changes in Openspace sims and the new Homestead product just focusing on the partial facts you want to highlight. This entire series of articles you are displaying is seeming to be nothing more than a trolling to cause people to be uncomfortable. You seem to WANT to have Linden Labs fail.

   Do not mistake these statements for me thinking Linden Labs is doing a good job just that yours is even more of a pile of horseshit than theirs.
2. 

   Prokofy Neva
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   Yes, it’s Jessica, not the Lindens, proving the old adage that figure lie and liars figure.
3. 

   Jessica Holyoke
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   Hi Professor C,

   What this article and the quarterly articles preceding it are trying to show is how people are spending money inworld relative to how they spent money in it before. Originally, the series was written to see if there was a recession in SL spending. I don’t use the LindeX because 1. there is a number of variables based on foreign exchange rates, so while the Linden dollar has been steadily getting stronger on average against the US dollar, there is also an effect of how the Linden dollar reacts to the pound, euro or real. 2. you don’t know where those lindens are actually flowing to. For example, HippiePay would pay you in lindens for filling out surveys. The Lindens would be purchased by the survery company but they didn’t earn that money in world.

   Now you are right math wise with your example. But by comparing percentages, you can compare how SL is growing over different time periods. With percentages, you can look at the early days and compare the growth rate, which you really can’t if you use whole numbers.

   I believe that land is important, but its not the best factor to look at to see how people are spending their money with other residents. That’s what I am going for with these series, how people are spending money on others in world.
4. 

   Galatea Gynoid
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   This was a surprisingly informative article for the Herald! If you actually digest the information, and ignore the commentary, you can learn a lot from this one. Assuming the figures are accurate, the SL economy is doing much better than I was expecting, considering the state of the RL world’s economies. Even the strongest economies in the world right now are experiencing much slower growth rates last quarter, many actually seeing contractions. A really interesting graph would be the ratio of the percentage growth of the SL economy over the US economy over the same quarters — I suspect Q4 2008 was in fact significantly better than Q4 2007 in those regards.

   Jessica is right that the strength of the L$ right now doesn’t really say anything notable about the SL economy — the change is small, and reflects the current weakness of the US$ more than anything else. Still, the positive effect for those of us in the US is the same, regardless.
5. 

   Professor C
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   @ Jessica

   Yet again you impress me with thinking before you type. Something Prok really could learn from.

   However you do have flaws in your logic. Your statement of comparing percentages is false. You are not comparing it to anything else other than the last month. What you COULD do to show more of a basis for the growth is show it in comparison to other streams. Unfortunately this is not entirely viable since OpenSim is still in it’s early flux stages. If I might suggest a comparison of growth of other genres of social interaction online.

   As for the Linden Dollars effect on other currency markets it will work in quite the same way. Each currency having its own basic ‘Value’ in and of itself. So the growth against the Dollar and the Euro would be the same percentage wise but the worth of those two currencies on their own would be judgmental on the Linden being more or less expensive.

   One other MAJOR thing to consider. And something you have not said a word about. Markets crashed worldwide sending several countries including the USA into a recession. So why is it that during the recession the Linden STILL went up two points from 263 to 261 per US Dollar even during the near global recession? Simple. Linden Labs is growing.

   Here’s another concideration. MANY MANY people sold sims or just abandoned them. Selling all their Lindens and getting out of game. One would think that event would have weakened the Linden. But still it Strengthened. Why? Linden Labs is growing.

   In the future, make comparisons to other markets
6. 

   duh
   

   Jan 17th, 2009
   

   Bots don’t spend money.
7. 

   Baron Frampton Von Higglesworth, MD Esqu.
   

   Jan 18th, 2009
   

   Professor C:
   Good god you are fucking goddamned stupid. If you are going to go into a thread trying to look like a right expert, at least know the basic elements of what the fuck you are talking about. The L$ conversion rate means absolutely nothing alone; velocity of money, along with total supply also figure in.

   Increases in total L$ supply come from one source: Supply Linden. During periods of economic growth, Supply Linden sales account for huge income in L$ because minting them and selling them is almost entirely profit, and dwarfs Lindex fees. They could let the L$ increase in value by throttling supply linden sales, which is exactly what their plan is. Zee Linden shat this out his asshole in November:
   http://forums.secondlife.com/showthread.php?p=2219415&highlight=supply+linden#post2219415

   November has returned to normal and to ensure stability we let the L$ appreciate by one L$ and we plan to let it continue to appreciate modestly over time.

   So there is the real reason why the exchange rate has gone up: economic intervention by Linden. Now please fuck off.
8. 

   Jessica Holyoke
   

   Jan 18th, 2009
   

   Professor C,

   With these figures, yes they compare the previous monthss performances, but that is what they are intended to do. To me, Second Life is unique in a number of ways. If I were to compare SL to other platforms, where would I stop? SL contains aspects of World of Warcraft, Entropia, EVE, City of Heroes, Red Light Center, There, IMVU, the new Grids (catching the OpenSims, Central Grid, LegendCity Online and the rest) and if you push the definition, Skype and Yahoo Chat. But not all of them have the small scale, imaginative economy like we have; the new Grids are closing in, and if LGO published economic numbers the same, then that might be worthwhile to compare, There is similar but not to the same level and they don’t seem to post their economic numbers for comparison.

   And frankly, I don’t see these numbers as saying anything about Linden Lab, which isn’t the point of the series. Linden Lab would be growing by revenue coming in, which is not measured by the economic statistics page because it should include Second Life Grid sales and other arrangements that would not show up.

   This series is for the residents who make a living or just a little bit of spending money by other people coming in and buying their products.

   And this is addressed to duh, bots don’t spend money on goods or services, but supposedly, no one can tell easily how many bots are on, other than counting dots or going up to people to ask if they are a bot. With the QPC dropping by 2, perhaps we are seeing a bot effect or a combination of bot hours increasing as money spent is decreasing by a significant amount. QPC is partially based on a number that is measured in the millions.
9. 

   Sophia~
   

   Jan 18th, 2009
   

   Well last night was a delightful experience on SL. I was sent to Purgatory right away as i logged in. *0K people and an announcement my last location was not available. The one parcel I usually go to that may have only 1 person at a time on it. Hmm not available.

   Once I arrived at Purgatory I was subjected to the others who were sent there by the almighty Linden. I finaly rezzed but most of the others remained grey. i filmed my experience and will think of posting it.

   There were vulgar people there harrasing others calling them names for no reason and it for some reason i was then teleported to someones land who thought i was a griefer. I was not dressed for the occasion. Dressed but not for public) I was considered a griefer. I may post that experience as well. I stayed because I wanted to capture the climate of the people that exsisted. Very hostile.

   I stayed logged in of course at my own will to just witness and capture the cruelness of others towards strangers. Some tried to stick up for others but it was plain ignorance most of it and I’m ashamed for them. What has happened to people? Why do they think its ok to verbally attack strangers based on hearing a few words from them. They may sound different from you but it doesnt mean you can asume they are either drugged or drunk or what ever you may assume. some others may be medicated or have a disability or have some deficit that may appear they are but do you actually know? Of course not so i’ll tell you it was just shamefull the behavior I wittnessed from a few and also Linden Labs better get their act together. This is getting to be (getting lol is an understatement) the service stinks and 80K people. Why don’t they cap the amount of people they accept until they can adequetly support them. Pure greed as far as I’m concerened Pure greed!

   Sophia~
10. 

    janeforyou Barbara
    

    Jan 18th, 2009
    

    What matters for me as SIM owner and mall owner and shop owner and creator are rent–sales–visitors,i dont use bots, but a lot of clubs,malls, and shops seam to be forced to put up 40 to 70 bots so it ” looks like” thay got good traffick to get in hight rent on there malls,if its bad or good i wont say, but i dont like it, bots dont shop and thay take ut space. And you dont need to be a Professor to se that the trading economy on items are down, i communicate with hudresds of creators and shops all the time and all tells me sales on items are way down, this got to do with RL economy yes, but i also se when SL got trubble as we seen the last 2 or 3 weeks when mony stales,, rez fail, lagg comes in and rolling restarts are all over sales stop…..So what we will need are a stabil good RL ecomomy.. stabil SL and plz can somone get ridd of bots? lol
11. 

    LOL
    

    Jan 18th, 2009
    

    SL constantly has issues and residents are unable to log in. so it makes sence that the Quarter 4 Results are the Lowest on Record. Hell just look at the Grid Status history page.. every singe day for the past 8 weeks there has been a problem. Perhaps if the Linden Game Tyrants, ( I hesitate to say “Game Gods” becuase that just feeds thier over sized ego’s) get the game running correctly with minimal problems\outages, we would see beter stats.
12. 

    Marc Woebegone
    

    Jan 20th, 2009
    

    And we care because why? The curve is gone. Virtual world problems and issues are now giving way to real world dilemmas. There will be spikes of growth, troughs of abandonment, and always the new victim to be teased in till imagination and boredom compel departure. When the real world has again met its social and moral obligations to humanity at a sustainable level, and a virtual world honoring freedom of expression and with purpose beyond just a game of pretend truths comes to be, there will be frolic anew and purpose to spend time watching avatars propel themselves across the screen in two dimension pretending to be three. The whole birthing point of virtual worlds has for now vanished because the purpose for which they originally abounded, creativity, has been stifled and oppressed. To the extent it continues to spin, it spins only for those who can’t get away from it; long live the party of the self-absorbed.
13. 

    Mony Markova
    

    Jan 20th, 2009
    

    Jess,

    I am so sorry – I have no clue what you are saying!

    I promise I have to be thinking differently or not understanding. I love the effort, and the importance on publishing economical figures, and I commend you for doing so. I have some observations and questions I like you to take as that.

    1. Why do you keep using or relating TOTAL HOURS LOGGED in as a measure of health of SL economy? Please consider the following:

    -More time connected is not equal to a better, healthier, richer, SL experience or use.
    -Abusive hours mechanisms like BOTS (as you mention) use extensive hours while not providing back to the economical system through spending
    -We don’t need to be connected more time to use SL efficiently

    So your figures of less total hours, might read as “more mature smart efficient use of the platform by users” (You see how this does not make absolute sense? as I can log in 1 hour per week and collect 10,000L and spend 25,000L … not a link with TIME!)

    Suggestion or petition: use or adopt a better more robust measure of economical performance and stop promoting the idea of being more time logged it better.

    —–
    PMLF – quite a better measure, hopefully it would consider land payments
    —–

    Then you relate PMLF again to hours logged? Why, can you explain please?

    —–

    It seems to me your paradigm of a better healthier economy its linked to more hours logged. I urge you to analyze this, so you can provide us with better analysis.

    Thanks
    Mony
14. 

    Jessica Holyoke
    

    Jan 21st, 2009
    

    Mony,

    The basic idea behind QPC is to measure the amount of money spent relative to the number of available hours logged on. Logged on hours, while capturing bots, also captures active users. For instance, if I used total residents, that would include all the throwaway alts, all the accounts that were abandoned and all the bots as well. With hours logged on, while capturing bots, it does not include the alts and abandoned accounts. And then I use PMLF because resident to resident transactions can capture transfers between alts and then transfers for off world reasons, like HippiePay. And remember, PMLF does not include any land costs.
15. 

    Mony
    

    Jan 21st, 2009
    

    Thanks Jess,

    What about amount of money spent/users?

    I am trying to think here, not pretending to have all answers but how about this hypothesis?

    If you use “hours logged on” -this measure its a cycle right? I mean it is something that ends and starts, how? because it is a timed cycle. Hours logged its measured either by day, month, quarter or year. Hence…. you will be getting marginal results as each cycle fills itself. Differently to users where there you can add more ppl, you cannot add more hours to a day or more days to a month.. LOL… let me try to explain myself.

    Imagine a glass that becomes fuller each time. (it has a limit therefore the glass analogy should work) as the glass is fuller at the top you will be getting smaller results, and this I believe its why you are getting lower figures each time. It becomes marginal.

    In other words, if you have a veteran base using SL, sometimes extensively (in hours) sometimes very measured, and add to that waves of new users, (In holidays SL gets more new users or when other virtual communities close, SL gets waves of new users) you would have a graph that behaves like the THL Quarterly growth.

    So what’s a better SL measure, specially related to economics of the system, my 5 cents would suggest some of the following: total amount of money imported, money spent, and “logged on now” figures. Then you can play with (money spent/logged users), (imported money/logged users).

    I think we all pay too much attention to the “black box” of how many alts does a person have, but after all all alts belong to one person so. And this becomes a microsystem, like a tree with branches, it does not matter how many alts I have. Since all I spend and make within SL its holded inside that microsystem me and my alts are

    I don’t know… if you want to continue this chat by email, please write and thanks for answering -I am bit slow on answering sometimes takes me a few days to check SL sometimes but if you are interested I would be happy. monymarkova@yahoo.com

    Finally, total hourly use of the Second Life grid its a thinking trap, the guys at LL have fallen themselves. why would we fall also there? Like I said you can log 4 hour a week and be perfectly happy, efficient, buy and sell lots of lindens, pay your tier, have a premium account… etc.. all the perks… Whats with time? (when being connected to SL too much can be less that healthy for some of us, like yours truly)

    Cheers
    M

Leave a Reply