The Alphaville Herald

56 Responses to “Linden Lab Has No Apparent Business Plan”

1. 

   Tizzers Foxchase
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   Catherine Smith once said that the bread and butter of Linden Lab is in taxing the microtransactions flowing through the LindeX.

   Consequently I think the prima materia of LL’s business model completely revolves around the idea of increasing the sale of virtual goods. This is why we see them heavily focusing on things like Collada integration and the SL Marketplace.

   The Linden main grid has several key elements that the competition currently lacks: A plethora of user generated content and an average online concurrency of 50,000+ users.

   This is completely hypothetical, however in my opinion the model looks something like:

   Providing tools that allow increase of content quality = Increase sale of goods = increase flow through the Lindex = higher revenue.
2. 

   Glenn Beck
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   @Tizzers

   You know who else taxed transactions and stopped education from flourishing?

   …Hitler.
3. 

   BamBam
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   The best analogy I have heard so far is the comparison to Apache HTTP Server, where Open Simulator offers something of the same but in a 3D version. Even that is a weak assessment. But it does provide us with some parallels to consider. The first that comes to mind is its open source. Something else to consider is the technological social movement that encompass OpenSim. With that much momentum you have to notice that it is and is going to have an impact on the future. Even in its “Alpha” version it is making strides beyond anything else that I am aware of. If the future of the web is a 3d environment then OpenSim is going in the right direction.

   Do you think your web browser will be called “Imprudence” in the future or “LL Viewer 5.9”? Do you think Micro$oft will develop a 3D viewer for OpenSim because they figured out that they screwed up and didn’t see the 3D environment taking off? Think about it… history tends to repeat itself… You are looking at the potential future of the web right here, right now.

   I’m just saying…
4. 

   Reality Check
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   Second Life is not the “Web in 3D.” Second Life is a sandbox game world with the ability to display web elements.

   The “3D web” will remain a toy until we see significant changes to the way human beings interface with computers. Nothing we do on our current personal machines can truly be considered 3-dimensional. It is the illusion of 3D on a very flat 2D surface. Meaningful augmented reality will define the coming decade.
5. 

   BamBam
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   @ Reality Check
   “The Second Life Viewer is 3D browsing software required to enter Second Life. It is spyware free.” <- Take from the Second Life website.
   Yes anyone can argue the fine points. None the less it is a simulation of 3D.

   But consider HTML was said to be a joke, a "toy" in the early days. As with any emerging technology it has to stand the test of public opinion.
6. 

   Ron T Blechner
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   @Tizzers: Right, I agree. But my article inquires how LL intends to keep this community. So I’m curious – what do you see as the “stickiness” factor of communities to stay in Second Life rather than migrate to other platforms? How does LL capitalize on this?

   @BamBam: Agree

   @Reality Check: You make an excellent point, though I don’t think it’s as black and white as you portray. If there’s one thing social media and virtual worlds has taught me, it’s that the borders between online technologies are very fuzzy and porous. For example, I recently read a very good article, a part 1 of 5 of uses of Augmented Reality for education. http://bit.ly/9srcWy – Part 1 was about Second Life. Essentially, the idea of Augmented Reality is both fluid in scope and direction.

   So, I agree in clearly separating one virtual world, such as Second Life, from the generic “This is the Metaverse” – as if one platform will be all-encompassing. At the same time, I agree with BamBam that the Second Life / OpenSim platform (whether it’s Linden Lab that winds up controlling it or not) will be a powerful and well-used tool moving forward.
7. 

   Maria Korolov
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   The analogy that I hear the most is that Second Life is like AOL just before Netscape hit bit — the WWW was already out there, and people were putting up (pretty crappy) websites that sucked in comparison. AOL had IM — WWW didn’t. AOL had shopping, and forums, and news, and all sorts of cool stuff that the Web didn’t. And the Web was ugly.

   Then Mosaic came out, and Netscape right after, and the Web exploded. Because it was cheap. It was easy. Anyone could put up a site. And you had full control of your own site — you didn’t have to kowtow to AOL’s terms of service. And eventually AOL had to take down its garden walls and join the rest of the world.

   Today the hypergrid doesn’t have as much stuff as SL. It doesn’t have all of SL’s features. The grids that are up are tiny by comparison. But it’s cheap. And it gives you full control over your own grid – no dealing with SL’s TOS. And it’s easy — the dozens of competing hosting providers are offering personalized service, super-easy management consoles, choice of starting terrains and regions, free trials, super high-end computers, or super cheap prices — or some combination of these.

   Full list here: http://www.hypergridbusiness.com/opensim-hosting-providers/

   And it’s growing fast.

   I believe that when a decent browser comes out, it will explode. And several groups are working on easy, Web-based browsers (including SL itself).

   – Maria Korolov, editor, Hypergrid Business
8. 

   Observer
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   If Rosedale had any serious business common sense he would be monitoring what his employees and contractors are saying to customers. There are more LL employees and contractors working to destroy SL so BM can rule than LL realizes. Blue Mars appears to know how to use cash better than LL does. Rosedale needs to man up and start dealing with the assholes he is paying.

   Or maybe he is the one trying to kill SL. Doesn’t make much sense really. Pouring all this money into making SL better while employees are telling customers on the phone LL is failing and the board just wants to show profit to lure a buyer.
   Rosedale, If you can’t do the job you need to, hire a darth vader type to kick the assholes out you are friends with.
9. 

   Yordie Sands
   

   Sep 28th, 2010
   

   I totally hear you Ron/Hiro. But I’m seeing some hopeful signs.

   * SL Directory has come a long way in the past couple years. It seems to me that LL is identifying SL’s hidden assets, namely the extradordinary sims developed by individuals and groups. No, “go be a vampire” doesn’t work for me either, but “go be a geisha” does. I have done a lot of exploring in SL over 3 years and I’ve seen the quality and variety of development and communities improve significantely.

   * Philip Linden has stated that the dev teams are working on fixing some of the infuriating bugs. If they get the darned sim crossing bug fix, I think it could change the dynamic for a lot of us who like to sail across or motor across sims. I can still remember how befuddled I was in 2007 at the corner of 4 sims, wondring what I had done wrong as I seemed to loose control of my av. So, yeah, get the bugs fixed before launching a marketing campaign.

   There is just too much to discuss here in a comment, and I understand your points. I recognize the mistakes LL has made, and I am inclined to believe you are right about LL not having a formal plan. Still, I’m hopeul. Jus my 2 cents
10. 

    Robert Graf
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Maria Korolov makes a very good point about the similarity between SL and AOL. AOL gouged their customers for years and when cheaper and better alternatives came along they bolted for greener pastures. Why pay Linden Lab $295/month/region when I can run multiple regions on a spare PC thru my existing internet connection.for free. The days of LL/SL dictating terms to their customers is over… Opensim is the future. ; )_~~~
11. 

    Ron T Blechner
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    @Yordie:
    “Be a vampire” doesn’t work in the same way “Be a geisha” doesn’t work. It’s not about the subject matter, it’s the approach. Linden Lab addresses users in a “go play in our game” methodology. What may seem subtlety different, but what I think is much better is, “Just a few more things you can do with the Second Life platform”. In my case, Linden Lab can promote vampire role-play communities side-by-side with say, education, business, or just hanging out with friends like you would on Facebook.
12. 

    Pappy Enoch
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Plan?

    Hell, none o’ them big-bugs runnin’ bizness in Amurika got the sense God give geese. Why in the Sam Hill should LL be different than them Smith-Barney (Google) an’ other rascals on Wall Street and Silly-Cone Valley?

    Boys, the wagon am in the ditch an’ now it are time for the hillbillies to take over. We am all gonna be po’ folks soon enuff an’ livin’ like me an’ my kin. So why the hell wait? Get yo’self started rite with the sodomy, rot-gut drinkin’, rickets, incest, snake-handlin’, and shootin’ stuff what riles you.

    Hoo whee I are your man fo’ that job…Pappy in 2012!
13. 

    Darien Caldwell
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    “OpenSims lacks two key things Linden Lab provides in Second Life:
    - A central economy with IP protection for content creators.
    - A large existing community.”

    … Which is why Opensim will never go anywhere. It’s the equivalent of some guy putting up a crappy website with flashing neon text, and Abba playing from a midi file in the background. Amateur Hour.
14. 

    Maria Korolov
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Darien –

    Exactly. OpenSim right now is very much like that crappy website. The thing is, it’s YOUR crappy website. And for every website — no matter how crappy — there’s someone out there who’ll want to see it, if it’s easy enough to get there. The Internet is full of junk. And LOLCats. It was unthinkable to the folks at AOL that people would prefer all that unmoderated… well, crap — instead of its nice, shiny, well-organized world.

    But they did. Unlike AOL, the Web has no central economy. Unlike AOL, the Web has no protections for content creators. (In fact, OpenSim has more protections than the WWW does.)

    And, unlike AOL, the Web had no large, existing community. Instead, the WWW community is scattered across millions of websites.

    OpenSim is a lot like that. You can put up your own grid for free, for $10 a month a region for a low-traffic sim, or $90 a month a region for an SL-quality one. And you can put whatever you want on there (the law permitting), and then invite anyone from anywhere on the hypergrid to come visit.

    Expect to see prices to continue to drop. Quality to improve. And the number of destinations on the hypergrid to explode.

    – Maria
15. 

    Fail
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Imagine if all of the people in Second Life suddenly disappeared.

    Imagine if all of the content in Second Life suddenly disappeared.

    Imagine if the SL economy suddenly disappeared.

    Imagine randomly crashing every few minutes, failed server hand-offs, a really sub-par open source physics engine, and pretty much nothing working.

    Welcome to OpenSim.
16. 

    Kinoko
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Hey guess what guise… http://www.kinggoon.com Just got hacked, I know this is not fully related but it was one of the biggest pirate sites on the net for copybotted item downloads.

    http://yfrog.com/jbkinggoonhackedp
17. 

    Sigmund Leominster
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Linden Lab do have a business plan: Return the money shareholders have invested and use any money that’s left to pass out to employees. And yes, land and market cut are the main income sources. So, I’m with Tizzers in believing that anything that encourages an increase in sales of virtual goods is something LL should be pursuing. The “cost of entry” to the virtual world market continues to decrease – which in turn increases competition. At some point, of course, it becomes pointless, when it’s so cheap that everyone can create their very own virtual world and wait fof the masses to roll on in. Except they won’t because they are waiting for folks to come to THERE virtual world.

    Maria’s “explosion in the hypergrid” could easily turn out to be a splendidly bad idea. Unless there’s some way to change our 24/7 existence to 25/8 (or any combination thereof), you, me, and millions of others can still only spend so much time in the virtual world. Once you’ve tweeted, Facebooked, MySpaced, Plurked, LinkedIn, emailed, blogged, commented on blogs, and then rechecked the responses to your tweets, Facebooks, MySpaces, plurks etc. there’s simply no time to spend in Second Life, Blue Mars, Open Sim 20124, World of Warcraft, Farmville…. you get the point.

    At this point, simply holding some market share is going to a priority for LL, and the recent scaling back and dumping of Avatars United shows they DO have a business plan – because these actions are what most businesses call their “contingency plans” being implemented.
18. 

    Nelson Jenkins
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    I don’t see OpenSim taking off. It hasn’t happened yet, for sure. You just can’t offer a great service for little to no cost without a strong business model or someone funding it.

    Take a look at Xmarks. They’re going down in January because they didn’t plan out their business model – they just said “let’s take Foxmarks and make it into a business!” and hoped that their silly search result relevancy thing would somehow make money. Well… it didn’t. And now everyone’s switching to the alternatives backed by individual browser developers.

    Or perhaps APB. That was a horrible failure, eh? I’m still waiting for my money back on 48 gameplay hours that I was saving for when they fixed the whole balancing issue. (Yes, I know it won’t be landing in my wallet anytime soon.) SL put up much more of a fight than APB did, sure, but in the end they both died because they were unresponsive to consumers, their business models were flawed, and they had severe splits between management and developers that resulted in getting nothing done and blowing all their money. So what happens if Epic Games pulls through on their idea to pick up the IP rights to APB? Well, if it runs on exactly the same platform, what’s the difference? They might manage some things better, but it’s still the same game. If they happened to make an entirely new game, then I’d be genuinely interested. But that’s not what OpenSim is doing – they’re sticking to the tried-and-failed Second Life platform. Last-decade graphics, horrible social networking, and less basic features than vanilla SL (some of us DO have to use groups – my company group is the easiest way to reach my customers to inform them of updates, new releases, security issues, etc. as IM-based messengers such as hippoGROUPS are often ignored upon login).

    But sure, go ahead and fuck about with OpenSim. I don’t really care, myself. Personally, I’ll start working on independent projects that aren’t based on shitty, unsupported platforms.
19. 

    Ron T Blechner
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    @Fail:
    Welcome to Second Life of 2004 / 2005. As I said in my article, the content, the people, and the economy will come, *assuming* the barrier to entry stays low and progress keeps being made. Since OpenSim’s tech progress is tied to Second Life’s, that’s not a bad bet.

    @Nelson
    “You just can’t offer a great service for little to no cost without a strong business model or someone funding it.”
    That’s exactly what Linden Lab started off doing. And Twitter. And Facebook. Etc. That’s the name of the social media game.

    But that’s almost moot. OpenSim *does* have money behind it. It benefits from Linden Lab’s innovations. It has companies like IBM and Intel developing custom applications for it.

    (*sigh*, why do I bother replying when I covered this in my article? Oh, right, repetition is convincing.)
20. 

    Nelson Jenkins
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    @ Ron T Blechner

    And LL failed. Twitter got some backing. Facebook is plagued with ads. They all got money (besides LL).

    How does benefiting from someone’s innovations translate into money? I benefit from the person who innovated the motor vehicle, but I personally have never bought one. Sure, I’ve paid insurance, but Henry Ford’s estate doesn’t have a nickel from me.

    And IBM and Intel developing “custom applications” for the betterment OpenSim is about as helpful as Google developing “custom applications” for the betterment of the internet. The internet makes no money; Google does. How OpenSim will make any money off of IBM and Intel using it as a source of profit is beyond me.
21. 

    IntLibber Brautigan
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Ron,
    To build on Tizzers’ comments, where LL can remain relevant as we see a broader exodus to the open grids is to focus on its two core competencies:

    a) they own the virtual mint
    b) they control the virtual patent and copyright office

    There is no reason why the Lab could not enable people to use L$ as a currency on any grid or website that wishes to use it and become the Virtual Reserve/VISA provider, making a cut on transactions just as credit card issuers do. This was an issue I brought up a few years ago at SLCC in Tampa, and Dan Linden narrow mindedly refused to consider it.

    The IP issue is also solvable by embedding creator key information in textures and other components of content in an encrypted manner, and registering content specifications and bit counts in a virtual patent server. While many of the copyleftists like to claim they can crack any system, that isn’t the point, the point is that locks and keys serve to keep honest people honest, and raise a barrier for those who wish to steal to overcome to factually establish their intent to steal in a court of law.

    At the present time, it is far too easy to steal content, and SL, nor any other grid, has established a system of due process by which victims can file complaints and pursue justice. Beyond controlling the mint and the patent office, LL needs to maintain its supremacy by establishing a software driven system for residents to pursue due process, with those engaged in operating the justice system being members of the community, just as it is in real life. By charging filing fees and other court costs in a loser pays system, LL can build another revenue stream while overcoming its preexisting problems that are due to its draconian, gestapo-like governance system.
22. 

    Kinoko
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    LULZ I have always loved how some creators write this on their textures.

    1. If you are reading this you have stolen my content, and you will be hearing from my lawyer, and yes creator you know who you are.

    Also you should be going after LL for them making it easy for anyone to take,access your texture keys/skins, or freely use your work, because they do nothing to stop it.
23. 

    Edna
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    I’m pleased as punch to see a Second Life story again.

    I still hate the traitor LeBron.
24. 

    c3
    

    Sep 28th, 2010
    

    Hey Ron,
    cant see it?
    well ,it’s still as I said to you 4 years ago before I suggested youd be writing this article today;)

    If you cant answer what the Business Model is… first make sure you’re asking the right questions;)

    c3
25. 

    IntLibber Brautigan
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    c3,
    Yes, I recall in 2007 having a talk with Ron at SLCC in Chicago about my statements about selling a Linden Scanner as a means of dealing with LL nixing Live Help in order to save money so that Jack could gut land prices by dumping shit tons of land on the market. Ron acted incredulous at the time…
26. 

    marilyn murphy
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    business model. ahem. they never promote the sex. why don’t they point out the sex in advertising? would this make them any less serious, or viewed askance by…someone? i have no stats or even quotes to back me up here, and maybe its just the kind of situation i was in, but isn’t sex a major draw in sl?
    i notice no respondents to this post have mentioned it. thought i would.
27. 

    Maria Korolov
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    The closest parallel we have for the development of OpenSim is Apache. Like OpenSim, Apache is an open source non-profit group building a server product — Apache is the most popular Web server out there, OpenSim is currently the most popular grid server, in terms of how many different grids are running the software.

    Apache has compatible for-profit alternatives — specifically, Windows Server. And non-profit alternatives as well. In fact, when you visit a website, you can’t usually tell which server software is running it.

    OpenSim has for-profit alternatives — the Second Life Enterprise server (now gone). IBM’s Lotus Sametime 3D. When you visit a grid you can’t usually tell which server software is running it, unless you try to build a mega-prim or do a grid search. (And, obviously, you can tell by the log-in screen, if you’re logging in directly.)

    OpenSim has some big names behind it, namely IBM and Intel, but this isn’t required. The World Wide Web is not run by any corporation.

    And as far as stability goes — I haven’t experienced any stability problems with my OpenSim grid, but then, I’ve got a good provider running it for me. Meanwhile, I’ve experienced a lot of instability and outages in Second Life recently. But this is anecdotal, of course. There are plenty of people who never have problems in Second Life. And there are people who get a cut-rate OpenSim hosting provider and get lousy service — or have an amateur running their grid.

    For example, I would not want to be running my own Web server, but many people do run their own OpenSim servers. But even with professional hosting, websites occasionally went down — mine went down for an hour today due to a problem with my host. And that’s when the Internet’s been around for almost 20 years.

    The hypergrid was only invented last year, and OpenSim isn’t even in its 1.0 release yet — it’s still alpha.

    Given how young the technology is — and how fast it’s been growing anyway, with no marketing, no advertising, I’m pretty bullish on OpenSim (or something like it).

    I am not, however, particularly bullish on OpenSim becoming a big social platform for the next few years. AOL had massive brand name recognition when it was at its peak, it was featured in movies (“You’ve got mail”), everyone got one of their disks in the mail. The only Web-based social platform that comes close is Facebook — and it took over a decade for us to get that, with lots of false starts.

    So I don’t expect the population of SL to suddenly migrate to one of the OpenSim alternatives. What I expect to happen is for niche communities to set up their own grids. A school would have a grid for its students. A company would have a grid for its clients. An artist would have a grid for his fans. None of these, by itself, would be particularly earthshaking. But they add up. A hundred schools here. A thousand companies there. Pretty soon you’ve got a rich ecosystem of grids, connected by hypergrid teleports, with plenty of places to go and things to see.

    Some of the time spent on these grids would cut into general online media consumption time. But a great deal, especially in the education and corporate grids, would be replacing face-to-face meetings, reducing travel costs, eliminating some commutes, enabling long-distance collaboration projects, training, prototyping, and simulations.

    Ten or fifteen years in the future, as interfaces improve, and connection speeds get faster, we might all be using a 3D Internet, with 2D Websites a small subset of the content that we experience in there.

    Personally, I’m an optimist, so I think it would be a good thing. Good for the planet. Good for innovation. Good for cross-cultural understanding.

    I don’t know if the eventual platform that dominates will be OpenSim, or Project Wonderland, or the SL server (if they start licensing it again) or a Windows product, or a combination of all of these. I’m betting on the latter, with a set of standards — the 3D version of HTML — tying it all together.

    Right now, in terms of numbers of public grids, OpenSim is ahead — but we all know how quickly that can change.

    – Maria
28. 

    OtakuMegane
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Try to remember: Opensim is NOT a business, NOT a service, NOT an economy. It is a piece of software. That’s all.

    LL decided, much like AOL, to provide both their own service and software. You can compare Opensim to the software that runs SL, but everything else you must compare to the individual *grids* that run on Opensim.
29. 

    Pappy Enoch
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Pix, can we git Tim to bring back sum cha-cha bingos?

    We needs some fake gals nekkid so the fussy-fights are over sum’fin important.

    Like how them fake shadows plays off’n them fake hooters.
30. 

    Nelson Jenkins
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @ Maria Korolov

    I have the feeling this formatting might screw up, so if it does, forgive me, but I’m being stupid and can’t recall how to format comments on here.

    “The closest parallel we have for the development of OpenSim is Apache. Like OpenSim, Apache is an open source non-profit group building a server product — Apache is the most popular Web server out there, OpenSim is currently the most popular grid server, in terms of how many different grids are running the software.”

    High grid count does not a userbase make. There are far more active end users of SL than OpenSim. A business franchise with a bunch of stores is useless when rarely anyone visits them as compared to a single store that everyone visits.

    “Apache has compatible for-profit alternatives — specifically, Windows Server. And non-profit alternatives as well. In fact, when you visit a website, you can’t usually tell which server software is running it.

    OpenSim has for-profit alternatives — the Second Life Enterprise server (now gone). IBM’s Lotus Sametime 3D. When you visit a grid you can’t usually tell which server software is running it, unless you try to build a mega-prim or do a grid search. (And, obviously, you can tell by the log-in screen, if you’re logging in directly.)”

    It is simple to connect to servers running either Apache or Windows Server because they utilize the same communications and are based on a protocol that allows seamless transfers between websites. The Second Life client is not a “browser” and thus you must install third-party, possibly outdated clients to connect to OpenSim grids. While these clients are compatible with the actual Second Life grid, the feature set is entirely different and some functions of OpenSim don’t exist in Second Life while some in SL don’t work on OS. In addition, it’s very easy to distinguish between Second Life and OpenSim – if the welcome sim you visit looks like it was designed by an autistic preschooler, the laws of physics barely apply, and the entire place is empty, you’re in OpenSim territory.

    “OpenSim has some big names behind it, namely IBM and Intel, but this isn’t required. The World Wide Web is not run by any corporation.”

    So? IBM and Intel aren’t going to buy out OpenSim and suddenly develop it into a Second Life competitor.

    “And as far as stability goes — I haven’t experienced any stability problems with my OpenSim grid, but then, I’ve got a good provider running it for me. Meanwhile, I’ve experienced a lot of instability and outages in Second Life recently. But this is anecdotal, of course. There are plenty of people who never have problems in Second Life. And there are people who get a cut-rate OpenSim hosting provider and get lousy service — or have an amateur running their grid.

    For example, I would not want to be running my own Web server, but many people do run their own OpenSim servers. But even with professional hosting, websites occasionally went down — mine went down for an hour today due to a problem with my host. And that’s when the Internet’s been around for almost 20 years.”

    That’s the problem with OpenSim “do-it-yourself” servers. If your computer freezes up or is shut down, your sim crashes. Similarly, the processing power of an actual webserver is much higher than the average desktop computer when it comes to handling internet traffic, especially when you’re not running a dedicated server. OpenSim regions that handle the same number of prims and the same number of avatars on a regular basis as a comparable Second Life region do not fare any better.

    “The hypergrid was only invented last year, and OpenSim isn’t even in its 1.0 release yet — it’s still alpha.

    Given how young the technology is — and how fast it’s been growing anyway, with no marketing, no advertising, I’m pretty bullish on OpenSim (or something like it).”

    Any new technology experiences growth regardless of its competency.

    “I am not, however, particularly bullish on OpenSim becoming a big social platform for the next few years. AOL had massive brand name recognition when it was at its peak, it was featured in movies (“You’ve got mail”), everyone got one of their disks in the mail. The only Web-based social platform that comes close is Facebook — and it took over a decade for us to get that, with lots of false starts.”

    And then AOL suddenly became shit and nobody cares about it anymore. It’s gone the way of Yahoo. So?

    “So I don’t expect the population of SL to suddenly migrate to one of the OpenSim alternatives. What I expect to happen is for niche communities to set up their own grids. A school would have a grid for its students. A company would have a grid for its clients. An artist would have a grid for his fans. None of these, by itself, would be particularly earthshaking. But they add up. A hundred schools here. A thousand companies there. Pretty soon you’ve got a rich ecosystem of grids, connected by hypergrid teleports, with plenty of places to go and things to see.”

    The only problem is that Second Life has practically zero enterprise uses. Virtual meetings are worthless on VR platforms. Advertising is easier and more accessible through HTTP. Setting up an OpenSim grid is a lot harder than setting up a website.

    “Some of the time spent on these grids would cut into general online media consumption time. But a great deal, especially in the education and corporate grids, would be replacing face-to-face meetings, reducing travel costs, eliminating some commutes, enabling long-distance collaboration projects, training, prototyping, and simulations.”

    There’s this cool new invention called GoToMeeting. There’s also a few others, such as Skype. They work a lot better and require virtually no setup. They’re more secure, more stable, and more “in person” than Second Life or OpenSim could ever be. As for collaboration, prototyping, and simulations, OpenSim has a horrible physics engine and terrible proprietary building tools that work nothing like any actual modeling software. And as for training, usually proprietary specific software is used (such as FATS for police and military training).

    “Ten or fifteen years in the future, as interfaces improve, and connection speeds get faster, we might all be using a 3D Internet, with 2D Websites a small subset of the content that we experience in there.”

    I really doubt it. I can see actual 3D interfaces, such as 3D TVs of today, but plain text (the bare basics of data) can’t really be rendered in 3D. That’s like calling a book 3D because it exists in a three-dimensional space as compared to a page of text, which, in a practical sense, only exists in two dimensions.

    “Personally, I’m an optimist, so I think it would be a good thing. Good for the planet. Good for innovation. Good for cross-cultural understanding.”

    And I’m not! As you probably already figured out, of course. I’m not exactly sure how OpenSim is good for the planet or good for cross-cultural understanding, but whatever.

    “I don’t know if the eventual platform that dominates will be OpenSim, or Project Wonderland, or the SL server (if they start licensing it again) or a Windows product, or a combination of all of these. I’m betting on the latter, with a set of standards — the 3D version of HTML — tying it all together.”

    OpenSim/SL is just horrible when it comes to graphics. It’s a terrible resource hog. I would not be surprised if Second Life died before it’s 10th birthday, and wouldn’t even notice if it died before its 20th. That is, of course, unless they make some big-time changes.
31. 

    Ron T Blechner
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @intlibber:

    Being the center of the greater SL/OpenSim universe wouldn’t be a bad way to go. That would mean being a champion of artist and developer rights, no?

    As for dumping land on the market – I don’t remember the conversation, but if you say it happened, I’m willing to admit that I don’t know *everything*.

    @c3:

    Give me more credit than that. If I go ahead and say that, I’ll just get denials from Linden Lab and pissed off people.

    But for the record, yes, I’ve suggested to people that I wonder if Linden Lab will – like people have alluded to by mentioning AOL – that they will go into the content business and cut out any need for 3rd party developers or indie content creators.

    @Nelson:

    “So? IBM and Intel aren’t going to buy out OpenSim and suddenly develop it into a Second Life competitor.”

    Actually, that’s exactly what they are doing. They’re researching their own platforms so that they can offer their own enterprise software. Ever since IBM’s VP spoke at the 2007 spring Virtual World Conference (which has become Engage! and then “ZOMG TOYS!”) – he made it clear that IBM was interested in developing whole new architectures. IBM and Intel are interested in being the hardware providers for a new generation of computer online technology, hardware, and software. And rightly so – that’s what they do best.
32. 

    Nelson Jenkins
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @ Ron T Blechner

    I meant that they weren’t going to develop a direct competitor for the consumer market. We won’t be seeing “IBMLife Sponsored By Intel” anytime soon; we’ll be seeing some kind of hybrid software that is something like Second Life but mostly designed towards enterprises and networking instead of your everyday consumer.
33. 

    Maria Korolov
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Nelson –

    Actually, many people use the standard Second Life client to log into OpenSim grids. For example, no 3rd party viewer currently supports media-on-a-prim, so if you want that, you have to use SL V2.

    And you can use that same SLV2 viewer to surf the hypergrid — just by typing in a hypergrid address into map-search instead of a region name and hitting teleport. For example, to go to my company grid, you’d type: grid.trombly.com:9019

    It will be interesting to see what they do with their web browser. Will they make it multi-grid? Or will they lock it down to just SL?

    – Maria
34. 

    Nelson Jenkins
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @ Maria Korolov

    I was referring to Second Life, not Facebook Life, a.k.a. Viewer 2.
35. 

    Magnum Serpentine
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Well strike three to Open Sim

    How the heck are you suppose to log into it? I can’t even figure out the software let alone how to log in.

    And thats where Second Life hits a home run. They have a very easy process to enter their World. Just enter your pass word and click. Open sim wants you to go to this BIN file or to that INI file or to that EXE file . My Lands its a wonder anyone is in Open Sim.
36. 

    Rock Ramona
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    ill tell ya one great thing linden labs is great at….permabanning griefers…yuck yuck yuck
37. 

    Maria Korolov
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Magnum –

    The easiest way to get into an OpenSim world is to follow the instructions for the grid you want to visit. A good place to start is OSGrid — it’s the biggest of the grids, there are always people around on LBSA Plaza (the welcome area), and many regions are hypergrid-enabled, so you can jump off to other grids. (There’s a nice hypergate you can use on the Samsara region.)

    Create a free account here: http://www.osgrid.org/elgg/account/register.php

    You can use any SL viewer to get in, but Imprudence is easy, and is pre-configured with OSGrid as the starting grid.

    Download it here: http://imprudenceviewer.org/wiki/Downloads

    Then just run it and you’re in. No bin, exe or ini.

    You might be thinking of the server software — running an OpenSim server is a little like running a web server. You’ve got to configure your databases, open your ports, all that messy stuff. Fortunately, I have my kids to do it for me for the world I run at home. Otherwise, for my company grid, I pay a pro to do it!
38. 

    Kinoko
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    LOL Linden Lab perma banning griefers. For those who think OSGrid, In Worldz, Or any other public grid with over 500 registered users can stop copybot, or content theft, you are obviously joking. I logged into inworldz with a copybot viewer, my own custom compiled viewer 5 times many months ago. I transfered some of my objects in world, walked around peoples stores, and guess what…

    Even though I broke their rules, they had no way to ban me because I was obviously behind a proxy, MAC/Viewer ID Spoofer & IP Spoofer, and I can still login to any grid I want to with any viewer I want to. They are no more secure than Linden Lab.

    Also Open Grids have quite a few exploits on them compared to what Linden Lab does anyways, I can still steal shit if I wanted to, and the security is just as bad, there is none really. I simply did this to prove that I would not be detected, and would not get banned.

    So until Linden Lab servers die OS Grid is no better, and if for any reason an OS grid becomes popular you can expect the same thing to happen there as on LL servers, until there is a major change in how SL Functions.

    Hope this helps a few who say OMG im running to OS grid its safe over here.
39. 

    Dave Bell
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @IntLibber

    So Linden Lab could become a virtual bank, providing a common currency for all these different grids, and maybe other services. Micro-transactions have been on the verge of happening for a long time.

    It means they end up being regulated like a bank, and not just in the USA. The banking regulations are different enough in Europe that Paypal serves its European customers through a company based in Europe.

    And they’re not handling a real currency: many countries have laws on their books that cover that. What are those Linden Dollars worth if the company goes bankrupt? Does the term “company scrip” ring any bells?
40. 

    Pappy Enoch
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @Dave,

    I gots lots o’ practice runnin’ a fake bank. It done failed and I were put in jail, but that won’t my fault. It were society’s fault.

    But failure never stopped that feller Bernie, who done made off wif all that there money.

    Anysohow, Miss Petunia done took the fall for my bank disaster, an’ she am the one in jail now. So I knows I are the feller for that Spacebux bank job (and I needs some money–real for fake–bad).

    I reckon I could handle it. I’ll write me up a bizness plan wif this here Crayola and pass it on to King Philip.

    I reckon he knows quality when he sees it.
41. 

    Bubblesort Triskaidekaphobia
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    Before VWs take over the internet they will have to do away with special virtual currency. Nobody wants to pay their fees for their spacebux or deal with their slowdowns or currency exchange limit bullshit.

    The thing that makes money valuable is that it is portable. I should be able to use my same dollar to buy a sword in WoW or a lap dance in SL or a coffee in meatspace.

    The only way to do this properly is with paypal or something like it. I only know of a few opensim grids using paypal directly, like RolePlayWorlds. I think the practice will expand, though. It’s quick, reliable and easy. Just remember to use your paypal email address when you create your account or else you’ll have to change your email address later on to use the money system.
42. 

    BamBam
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    I love how people talk about security on the web. You can snatch a images (content) off a web page as easy as you can off Second Life or OpenSim.

    Do you really think really think web sites are able to protect their web pages from being copied? These people that shout about protecting SL content really don’t have a clue. It is simply amazing.

    How would LL ever have a plan to stop content coping when the web doesn’t have an answer either? Running from one grid to another isn’t going to change the fact that content coping is happening. But LL need to get its act together or they may loose there domination to a opensim. It is the only compatible server that I am aware of that you can transfer your own content to.
43. 

    Oni Horan
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    I have always seen Linden Labs as service providers.
    They provide stable reliable servers/server software and that should really be the entirety of their involvement.
    I think it is completely delusional to think a project like OpenGrid could step in to replace what LL has to offer.

    I won’t dismiss the fact that LL is currently going through an identity crisis, giving all competitors a break to catch up, but I do believe there is a lot of money for them to be made and because of that I have no doubts that eventually they will pull themselves together.
44. 

    Bambam
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @ Oni Horan

    I don’t think that Open Grid was ever intended for the purpose of replacing Second Life. But from the perspective of LL it is an avenue to keep them in control of the 3D platform.
    http://wiki.secondlife.com/wiki/Open_Grid_Public_Beta
45. 

    Yep
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    @
    Maria

    How do you get the sl viewer to log onto the OS grid if there is no option like on third party viewers to add a grid? After the emerald disaster, I do not trust any of them.
46. 

    Edna
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    I wouldn’t worry about your Second Life money. If Second Life were to go belly up your Linden Dollars would become collector items. Sure, no one would pay much for them now but keep them in good condition, and pass them on to your grandchildren who might find them to be of value to collectors and pawn shops years in the future.
47. 

    Aeolus Cleanslate
    

    Sep 29th, 2010
    

    “Opensim is NOT a business, NOT a service, NOT an economy. It is a piece of software. That’s all.”
    If Opensim is the equivalent of Apache, then look at it as a car analogy: Apache is never the car, it’s just the engine. You don’t market “8 cylinders,” you market “performance and styling.” LL is like Ford was in the early days – it had to manufacture most of its own components in order to produce a model T. When a network of suppliers emerged, it could afford to buy pieces from them and concentrate on integrating them and marketing the finished product.

    If LL has a business model it’s to attract people to use SL as a platform on which to design experiences, which will in turn attract more visitors and content creators to spend money and give LL their cut. It’s not a terrible model, and SL doesn’t have to “win” or “dominate” anything to make it succeed.

    Virtual worlds competition isn’t a zero-sum game.
48. 

    Maria Korolov
    

    Sep 30th, 2010
    

    Yep –

    To use the regular Second Life viewer to log into an OpenSim grid, you need to edit the path of its shortcut. I hate doing this — that’s why I use Imprudence and Hippo, but I’ve had to do this to use SL Viewer 2.

    I tried to post the info here, but it gets rejected as spam!

    So I have to direct you to the official OSGrid login page: osgrid.org/docs/instructions.htm

    Note that OSGrid itself hasn’t yet upgraded to the latest version of OpenSim, which supports SLV2 and media-on-a-prim. If you want that, check out German Grid: germangrid.de/frontend/help

    German Grid has a nice shopping area at Ellis Island, and live music at Folk Cafe.

    – Maria
49. 

    MarkByrn
    

    Sep 30th, 2010
    

    …Go The Facebook Route?…Linden Lab could build on community-making as a platform. Where Metaplace failed because of an immature economy and a lack of 3-D immersion, Second Life can shine…

    After Metaplace predictably collapsed, the company was sold to Playdom and two game offerings on Facebook (My Island Life and My Vineyard) are it’s legacies. If it were possible to bring SL to Facebook as an app without stripping it down, that would be a smart move; same with making mobile apps for it.
50. 

    Gundel Gaukelei
    

    Oct 1st, 2010
    

    More rumour:

    h_t_t_p://www.techeye.net/internet/microsoft-to-buy-second-life

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